Spend in the Battle of the Festive Ads to Reach £10.5bn

Published: 13 Nov 2024

Kantar research shows people have greater anticipation for the season’s creative offering than ever before

London, November 7, 2024: Advertisers are expected to spend a record £10.5bn during the festive season, according to new data released by the Advertising Association (AA) and WARC. This marks a 7.8% increase from last year’s spend of £9.7bn and the investment highlights advertising’s vital role to support businesses, jobs and the economy during the Christmas period.

New research from Kantar shows positive sentiment towards Christmas ads is the highest since measurement began, with 59% of people saying they ‘love’ Christmas TV ads, up from 51% in 2023. While 48% of consumers last year were ‘really looking forward to seeing Christmas ads on TV’, this figure has now lifted to 56%.

The AA/WARC adspend figures show spend for the Q4 season will reach record levels, with online media channels expecting to see a boost including online display (which comprises social media spend) at 15.8%, online radio at 8.8% and broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) at 7.8%. In towns and high streets, out of home advertising is expected to see an 8.1% rise in spend and cinema is up 5.1%, in line with new seasonal hits, Paddington in Peru, Wicked and Gladiator 2.

Many of the UK’s biggest brands including John Lewis, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Waitrose, Marks & Spencer and Boots are releasing blockbuster Christmas ads again this year, alongside global brands such as Amazon, Disney and Coca-Cola. In 2023, campaigns by Aldi, featuring Kevin the Carrot, and Coca-Cola were broadly recognised as the most effective advertising work of the festive season[1]. Earlier this month, new analysis by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) of the winners of its Effectiveness Awards highlighted three consistent ingredients for Christmas advertising success – fame, emotion and TV – to deliver a greater market share for the advertiser[2].

Matt Bourn, Director of Communications, Advertising Association, said: “The final quarter of the year is a critical one for businesses, large and small, to promote their wares in a battle for customer attention. The investment we see here in this Christmas advertising spend is an investment in growth which supports jobs up and down the country. As ever, we will see the very best of advertising with all the creative flair that the UK advertising industry can bring to help businesses secure fame and success.”

Lynne Deason, Head of Creative Excellence at Kantar, explains: “Advertisers really raised the bar last year, and the festive fervour we’re seeing now reflects that. When it comes to anticipating this year's campaigns, John Lewis remains the powerhouse with one in four people saying it’s the ad that they are most excited to watch. Last Christmas there was a ramp up in humorous campaigns, a great way to make content stick in our minds. Gone are the days when all brands try to beat John Lewis at their own game with an emotional rollercoaster. There are so many creative ways to entertain people with advertising and that’s what people love so much at this time of year– storytelling, music, humour, celebrities etc - combined with the joy and meaning of the Christmas spirit.”

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC said: “Brands know that a well-crafted Christmas campaign can boost salience, anchor loyalty and drive impressive sales results to boot. It’s the time of year when media budgets swell, and creative teams pull out all the stops to deliver memorable messaging that resonates well beyond Boxing Day.

“While the Golden Quarter typically attracts elevated levels of advertiser investment for these reasons, the anticipated £760m rise in spend this year would be the largest increase on record if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were excluded, with a total above £10.5bn yet another zenith for the UK’s market.”

AA/WARC Q4 2024 FORECAST FOR AD SPEND

*Note: Broadcaster VOD, digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio station websites are also included within online display and classified totals, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Online radio includes targeted in-stream radio/audio advertising sold by UK commercial radio companies, together with online S&P inventory.

ENDS

For more information, please contact:

Advertising Association

Matt Bourn, Director of Communications

Matt.Bourn@adassoc.org.uk

Mariella Brown, Senior Communications Manager

Mariella.Brown@adassoc.org.uk

WARC

Amanda Benfell, Head of PR & Press

amanda.benfell@warc.com

T: +44 (0) 20 7467 8125

Notes to editors:

About the Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report

The Advertising Association/WARC quarterly Expenditure Report is the definitive guide to advertising expenditure in the UK. Impartial and independent of any media channel or agency affiliation, it is the only source of historical quarterly adspend data and forecasts for the different media for the coming eight quarters. With data from 1982, this comprehensive and detailed review of advertising spend includes the AA/WARC’s own quarterly survey of all national newspapers, regional newspaper data collated in conjunction with Local Media Works and magazine statistics from WARC’s own panels. Data for other media channels are compiled in conjunction with UK industry trade bodies and organisations, notably the Internet Advertising Bureau, Outsmart, Radiocentre and the Royal Mail.

All data are net of discounts and include agency commission, but exclude production costs. The survey was launched in 1981 and has produced data on a quarterly basis ever since.

Methodology for WARC’s quarterly forecasts

Analysis of annual ad spend data over the past 35 years shows that there is a link between annual changes in GDP and annual changes in ad spend (after allowing for inflation, and excluding recruitment ad spend). Over this period, GDP changes account for about two thirds of the change in ad spend. WARC has developed its own forecasting model to generate forecasts for two years based on assumptions about future economic growth. The model provides an indication of likely overall spend levels – adjusted to allow for short-term factors (Olympics, World Cup etc).

The Expenditure Report (www.warc.com/expenditurereport) launched online in February 2010 and combines data from the discontinued print publications the Quarterly Survey of Advertising Expenditure and the Advertising Forecast. It is relied upon daily by the world’s largest brands, ad agencies, media owners, investment banks and academic institutions. Alongside over 200 readymade tables, subscribers can create their own customised tables for analysis of different media and time periods, as well as track the different media’s share of ad spend. All reports can be exported from the online interface. An annual subscription is priced at £760 for AA members and £1,175 for nonmembers.

Kantar research

The study was conducted in Great Britain via Kantar Research Express, an omnibus survey that’s conducted online. A sample of 1,257 GB adults aged 16 and over was interviewed. Interviews were conducted by online self-completion from 10 October to 12 October 2024. The sample has been weighted to represent the adult population of Great Britain over the age of 16.

About the Advertising Association
The Advertising Association promotes the role and rights of responsible advertising - trusted, inclusive, and sustainable – and its value to people, society, businesses,
​and the economy. Responsible businesses understand that there is little point in an advertisement that people cannot trust. That's why, over 50 years ago, the Advertising Association led UK advertising towards a system of independent self-regulation which has since been adopted around the world. There are nearly thirty UK trade associations representing advertising, media, and marketing. Through the Advertising Association they come together with a single voice when speaking to policy makers and influencers.

About WARC – The global authority on marketing effectiveness
For over 35 years WARC has been powering the marketing segment by providing rigorous and unbiased evidence, expertise and guidance to make marketers more effective. Across four platforms - WARC Strategy, WARC Creative, WARC Media, WARC Digital Commerce – its services include 100,000+ case studies, best practice guides, research papers, special reports, advertising trend data, news & opinion articles, as well as awards, events and advisory services. WARC operates out of London, New York and Singapore, servicing a community of over 75,000 marketers in more than 1,300 companies across 100+ markets and collaborates with 50+ industry partners.

WARC is part of Ascential. Ascential is part of the Informa Group.

About Kantar

Kantar is the world’s leading marketing data and analytics business and an indispensable brand partner to the world’s top companies. We combine the most meaningful attitudinal and behavioural data with deep expertise and advanced analytics to uncover how people think and act. We help clients understand what has happened and why and how to shape the marketing strategies that shape their future.

[1] As judged by Kantar and System1, source: Marketing Week, November 23, 2023

[2] Source: Campaign, October 15, 2024